As forests are affected by many different biotic, abiotic and anthropogenic factors, not all stands (or parts thereof) survive the period of development for which a forest management plan is elaborated. On the other hand, due to the historical background, a part of the stands that should be cut are spared, to go on to exceed the fixed cutting age. This situation prompts questions as to how many stands are being cut (or destroyed by bio− or abiotic factors) and under what influences, as well as in regard to the level of exploitation of mature and over−mature stands that takes place? Responding to such questions, the work forming the basis of the present study has sought to estimate the probability of survival of stands in ten−year age classes, as against the probability that shelterwood cutting will be commenced within them. The data used to do this were collected by the Forest Management and Geodesy Bureau in line with Forest Management Instructions (2003, 2012), in respect of 64 Polish forest districts located within 14 regional directorates of the State Forests, and with a view to forest management plans being developed and made available by the State Forests General Directorate. Specifically, data from forest management plans elaborated in 2009 and 2010 were used, as were in essence repeat data (from Plans elaborated for the same Districts 10 years later – in 2019 and 2020). The empirical survival of stands in ten−year age classes was estimated by overlapping the vector map of stands of Forest Districts with a 100×100 m grid of sample plots. The probability estimate was then achieved using logistic regression in line with silvicultural method and the presence or absence of shelterwood cutting, and clear−cutting), as well as in respect of the six main tree species in Polish forestry. In total, data were collected from 615,516 individual sample points, of which dominant species in stands were Pinus sylvestris in 65.8% of cases, as compared with figures of 4.6% for Picea abies, 5.7% for Alnus glutinosa, 5% for Fagus sylvatica, 11.4% for Quercus robur and Quercus petraea and 7.6% for Betula pendula. Survival probabilities were found to differ between Forest Management Units (FMUs) of different species, cutting age and silvicultural method. Thus, for pine stands with a projected cutting age of 110 years, the probability of that the first age class would transition into the second was only 96.4%, increasing slightly thereafter. Spruce stands associated with the clearcut method had a relatively high probability of early mortality at 30−50 years of age (of about 5%), with this decreased in pre−mature stands. Among beech stands, there was a clear decrease in the probability of survival in age classes 2 and 3 (11−20 and 21−30 years old respectively). In the stands associated with the clear−cutting silvicultural method, the probability of that taking place was found to be even in each age class in mature and over−mature stands. It was also shown that, in each case in which the cutting age had been exceeded after some time, the probability of survival was greater with age, with the probability of a cut not being below 25% in any age class.

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